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This is your wake up call! Global warming is real! Jamaican climate expert, Professor Abraham Anthony Chen, speaks out.
Interview by Alexis Wong
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While Professor A. Anthony Chen may have retired from his role as a professor in the Physics department at the University of West Indies, Mona, the professor is even busier. He spends much of his time on campus mentoring and guiding students, as well as speaking and continuing research on the topic of climate change. He takes a moment to share his thoughts and fears on climate change.
You were part of a UN network of scientists (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—IPCC) that was recognized with a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, for the work towards building and providing awareness about man-made climate change. Has the understanding about climate change improved since then?
Research into the physical basis of climate change—the physical, chemical and biological processes that cause climate change—is ongoing. We will have a better grasp of the progress made in understanding and explaining climate change during the IPCC 5th assessment, which starts this year and ends in 2013.
What has been discovered since the 4th assessment, (for which the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore), is that some over zealous scientists have overstated the case of the melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas, simply by not following the agreed IPCC guidelines. This occurred in a report by the IPCC, which had the responsibility of studying the impacts of climate change. The error in no way affected the basic conclusions of other findings, which studied the physical basis of climate change. One of the basic conclusions is that from new estimates of the combined anthropogenic forces (human activities) from greenhouse gases, aerosols and land surface changes, it is extremely likely(more than 95 percent probability), that human activities have exerted a substantial net warming influence on climate since 1750.
Al Gore was also awarded the Nobel Prize that year for the documentary, An Inconvenient Truth. Critics said that it was “alarmist” and “exaggerated” what were you thoughts on the film?
The basic conclusions were based on solid scientific work, even though Al Gore may have added flair to his presentation. In addition, he was not under the same scientific constraints as the IPCC
Where does your fascination with climate change stem from?
I am primarily interested in the application of physics, in this case physics of the atmosphere. Global warming will severely stress the planet. Climate change scientists have to inform the public on the consequences and the need to switch to a low carbon economy.
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How alarmed should Jamaicans be about climate control?
Very. If we do not take measures to adapt to climate change and mitigate climate change, the consequences will be severe.
What can we do?
Most importantly, the world needs to switch to a low carbon economy as quickly as possible. The technologies for this switch are feasible. However, more research and development is needed to make them economical.
What’s the biggest misconception about climate change?
Probably, that it is due only to man-made activity or only to natural variations.
What do you say to those skeptics who dispute man’s role in climate change?
Climate change is real. The earth is gradually getting warmer despite natural variations from year to year. The natural variations may make next year colder than this year, but the overall trend is one of rising temperature. Climate models show that the trend can only be explained by a combination of natural variation and man-made activity. Neither one alone can explain the trend.
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So here is the scary part. What can Jamaicans expect to see if we continue to ignore these warnings?
Professor Chen:
If we do not mitigate climate change, the threats that we all face as islanders include:
- Accelerated sea level rise leading to more destructive storm surges and endangering human settlement
- Rainfall reduction in the tropics leading to droughts and shortage of water for domestic and agricultural use – already we are experiencing this, with islandwide water shortages and lock-offs
- More intense, if less frequent, storms leading to loss of property and flooding
- Loss of food production affected by droughts and higher temperatures—already we are seeing this
- Depletion of coastal resources, including death and migration of fishes to cooler waters
- Death of coral reefs due to warmer seas—already we are seeing this
- Increased ambient temperature leading to heat stresses, such as heat waves and heightened cardio-respiratory diseases
- Increases in diseases directly linked to higher temperatures such as dengue (a threefold increase in transmission with 2º-3º C rise in temperature)
- Increases in water-borne and vector-borne diseases associated with flooding, such as typhoid and leptospirosis
- Poor sanitation and the spread of diseases due to the lack of potable water
- Elevated concentrations of ozone associated with increased hospital admission for pneumonia, chronic pulmonary disease, asthma, allergic rhinitis and premature mortality
- Greater contact between pests, such as flies, and food leading to the spread of diseases
- Increase in the frequency and severity of fire events causing burns and illness from smoke inhalation.
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